BAS 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-17 11:51 CST · 捉妖器
0.027336
+5.2% 24h
量 $4.4M
余震
观望
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/04 | 0.035407 | 0.04568 | 0.032525 | 0.04122 | +16.4% | 40.4% | 1,173,382K | 放量 中阳 |
| 07/05 | 0.041225 | 0.045789 | 0.02859 | 0.029025 | -29.6% | 60.2% | 967,345K | 大阴 ★新高 |
| 07/06 | 0.029056 | 0.033853 | 0.025585 | 0.02855 | -1.7% | 32.3% | 848,437K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/07 | 0.028551 | 0.029055 | 0.025113 | 0.026431 | -7.4% | 15.7% | 257,424K | |
| 07/08 | 0.026433 | 0.031968 | 0.0251 | 0.027429 | +3.8% | 27.4% | 457,339K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/09 | 0.02744 | 0.028742 | 0.026727 | 0.028686 | +4.5% | 7.5% | 132,039K | |
| 07/10 | 0.028675 | 0.02906 | 0.025394 | 0.025556 | -10.9% | 14.4% | 118,198K | 中阴 |
| 07/11 | 0.025557 | 0.028325 | 0.025337 | 0.025917 | +1.4% | 11.8% | 129,695K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/12 | 0.025905 | 0.02732 | 0.0255 | 0.027095 | +4.6% | 7.1% | 78,116K | 缩量 |
| 07/13 | 0.027084 | 0.027488 | 0.025619 | 0.026277 | -3.0% | 7.3% | 77,541K | 缩量 |
| 07/14 | 0.026279 | 0.03076 | 0.025233 | 0.025942 | -1.3% | 21.9% | 228,496K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/15 | 0.02594 | 0.026229 | 0.023544 | 0.024972 | -3.7% | 11.4% | 176,007K | 长下影 |
| 07/16 | 0.024955 | 0.028551 | 0.024903 | 0.027332 | +9.5% | 14.6% | 179,458K | |
| 07/17 | 0.02733 | 0.027598 | 0.026788 | 0.027336 | +0.0% | 3.0% | 11,871K | 缩量 十字星 |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/18 | $12.5M | |
| 06/19 | $12.0M | -3.8% |
| 06/20 | $12.0M | -0.4% |
| 06/21 | $11.9M | -0.8% |
| 06/22 | $11.8M | -0.4% |
| 06/23 | $11.1M | -5.8% |
| 06/24 | $12.1M | +8.2% |
| 06/25 | $16.7M | +38.3% |
| 06/26 | $17.3M | +3.7% |
| 06/27 | $17.1M | -1.1% |
| 06/28 | $16.3M | -4.7% |
| 06/29 | $16.7M | +2.4% |
| 06/30 | $21.4M | +28.6% |
| 07/01 | $14.8M | -31.0% |
| 07/02 | $11.4M | -23.1% |
| 07/03 | $6.6M | -42.0% |
| 07/04 | $7.0M | +5.7% |
| 07/05 | $6.9M | -0.4% |
| 07/06 | $4.1M | -40.3% |
| 07/07 | $3.9M | -4.9% |
| 07/08 | $3.5M | -9.9% |
| 07/09 | $3.5M | -0.2% |
| 07/10 | $3.5M | -0.2% |
| 07/11 | $3.1M | -12.1% |
| 07/12 | $3.0M | -3.7% |
| 07/13 | $3.2M | +6.3% |
| 07/14 | $3.0M | -4.6% |
| 07/15 | $2.9M | -5.6% |
| 07/16 | $2.8M | -3.6% |
| 07/17 | $3.0M | +7.3% |
- 当前OI $3.0M,占近30日峰值的14%
- 近7天OI变化-5%
- 最近1日OI变化+7%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速上涨+5%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 多 | 35 | 46 | 89 | 104 | 0.0262962 | 0.0265853 |
| 07/12 15:22 | 多 | 32 | 44 | 87 | 102 | 0.0262175 | 0.0266271 |
| 07/12 22:22 | 多 | 32 | 42 | 100 | 88 | 0.0261477 | 0.0267692 |
| 07/13 06:06 | 空 | 32 | 44 | 92 | 98 | 0.0262928 | 0.0268176 |
| 07/13 14:22 | 空 | 44 | 31 | 102 | 77 | 0.0261526 | 0.0267213 |
| 07/13 22:07 | 空 | 38 | 33 | 85 | 91 | 0.0265239 | 0.026672 |
| 07/14 05:52 | 空 | 34 | 32 | 81 | 70 | 0.0264363 | 0.0265663 |
| 07/14 14:07 | 空 | 49 | 33 | 118 | 82 | 0.0273606 | 0.0282768 |
| 07/14 21:22 | 空 | 51 | 35 | 126 | 91 | 0.0289756 | 0.0286695 |
| 07/15 05:36 | 空 | 54 | 36 | 132 | 113 | 0.0264533 | 0.0283484 |
| 07/15 13:06 | 空 | 48 | 36 | 102 | 123 | 0.0250275 | 0.0276835 |
| 07/15 21:21 | 多 | 38 | 36 | 79 | 123 | 0.024589 | 0.025477 |
| 07/16 05:07 | 多 | 31 | 39 | 88 | 97 | 0.0250442 | 0.0250292 |
| 07/16 12:21 | 空 | 37 | 44 | 106 | 95 | 0.0255426 | 0.025814 |
| 07/17 03:37 | 空 | 45 | 40 | 107 | 88 | 0.0270701 | 0.0272319 |
- 数据跨度115小时(405个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 35→45(+10)
- 空头巨鲸 46→40(-6)
- 多头交易员 89→107(+18)
- 空头交易员 104→88(-16)
- 多头成本 0.0263→0.02707(+2.9%)
- 空头成本 0.02659→0.02723(+2.4%)
- 多头浮盈亏 +1.0%
- 空头浮盈亏 -0.4%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/14 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段余震
信号起始07-12 03:51 @ 0.02647 · 至今+3.2%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决WATCH · 观望
周期第2轮 · 23.3×
垂直爆发已疯 (127%)
OI$3.0M (峰值14%)
距本轮峰值57.2% · 17天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度88%
深盘锚定12%
类比≈F 见顶后178天
30天腰斩概率0%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第2轮曾拉升23倍(垂直爆发127%),见顶后17天已崩57%,现价仍是最初起点的10.0倍
- 距本轮峰值57%,见顶后17天,进入余震绞肉区
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.04M,占56%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 余震绞肉区,无明确方向/接近死透,观望
六、综合研判
信号统计: 1个看涨 vs 1个看跌
场景推演
余震归零
持续阴跌+OI不重建 → 持底仓空
二轮拉升
OI爆炸式重建+垂直反弹 → 立即平空