BEAT 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-17 11:56 CST · 捉妖器
2.568
+1.8% 24h
量 $14.1M
余震
观望
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/04 | 2.659 | 3.114 | 2.571 | 2.884 | +8.5% | 21.1% | 14,479K | ★新高 |
| 07/05 | 2.883 | 2.919 | 2.671 | 2.801 | -2.8% | 9.3% | 8,339K | 长下影 |
| 07/06 | 2.801 | 2.813 | 2.344 | 2.574 | -8.1% | 20.0% | 12,253K | |
| 07/07 | 2.574 | 2.727 | 2.354 | 2.438 | -5.3% | 15.8% | 10,045K | |
| 07/08 | 2.438 | 2.486 | 2.052 | 2.352 | -3.5% | 21.2% | 12,351K | 长下影 |
| 07/09 | 2.351 | 2.36 | 2.104 | 2.204 | -6.3% | 12.2% | 8,053K | |
| 07/10 | 2.204 | 2.725 | 2.148 | 2.683 | +21.7% | 26.9% | 17,847K | 大阳 |
| 07/11 | 2.684 | 3.057 | 2.226 | 2.348 | -12.5% | 37.3% | 59,362K | 放量 中阴 |
| 07/12 | 2.348 | 2.927 | 2.166 | 2.55 | +8.6% | 35.1% | 39,958K | |
| 07/13 | 2.551 | 2.716 | 2.426 | 2.645 | +3.7% | 12.0% | 15,025K | |
| 07/14 | 2.644 | 2.691 | 2.488 | 2.513 | -5.0% | 8.2% | 7,259K | |
| 07/15 | 2.514 | 2.856 | 2.495 | 2.597 | +3.3% | 14.5% | 8,977K | 长上影 |
| 07/16 | 2.597 | 2.645 | 2.402 | 2.548 | -1.9% | 10.1% | 6,188K | 长下影 |
| 07/17 | 2.549 | 2.607 | 2.543 | 2.568 | +0.7% | 2.5% | 582K | 缩量 |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/18 | $18.5M | |
| 06/19 | $14.0M | -24.4% |
| 06/20 | $13.7M | -2.2% |
| 06/21 | $12.8M | -6.9% |
| 06/22 | $13.6M | +6.6% |
| 06/23 | $12.2M | -10.6% |
| 06/24 | $17.0M | +40.0% |
| 06/25 | $12.6M | -26.3% |
| 06/26 | $14.3M | +13.9% |
| 06/27 | $17.0M | +18.8% |
| 06/28 | $17.3M | +1.5% |
| 06/29 | $17.8M | +3.0% |
| 06/30 | $17.9M | +0.8% |
| 07/01 | $18.3M | +1.9% |
| 07/02 | $16.1M | -11.8% |
| 07/03 | $18.3M | +13.4% |
| 07/04 | $14.3M | -21.9% |
| 07/05 | $15.2M | +6.6% |
| 07/06 | $14.6M | -3.7% |
| 07/07 | $13.8M | -5.8% |
| 07/08 | $12.8M | -7.5% |
| 07/09 | $12.4M | -2.6% |
| 07/10 | $11.6M | -6.8% |
| 07/11 | $15.2M | +31.0% |
| 07/12 | $14.1M | -7.0% |
| 07/13 | $14.9M | +5.7% |
| 07/14 | $14.6M | -2.0% |
| 07/15 | $13.8M | -5.5% |
| 07/16 | $14.2M | +2.6% |
| 07/17 | $14.2M | +0.5% |
- 当前OI $14.2M,占近30日峰值的77%
- 近7天OI变化-6%
- 最近1日OI变化+0%
- 价涨OI跌:上涨靠空头平仓驱动,非新多入场,动力减弱
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 空 | 82 | 54 | 238 | 261 | 2.695 | 2.814 |
| 07/12 15:22 | 空 | 70 | 65 | 225 | 242 | 2.525 | 2.814 |
| 07/12 22:22 | 多 | 88 | 46 | 206 | 233 | 2.554 | 2.649 |
| 07/13 06:06 | 多 | 82 | 51 | 198 | 239 | 2.693 | 2.688 |
| 07/13 14:22 | 多 | 73 | 68 | 216 | 189 | 2.605 | 2.689 |
| 07/13 22:07 | 空 | 66 | 74 | 175 | 198 | 2.581 | 2.626 |
| 07/14 05:52 | 多 | 72 | 66 | 166 | 164 | 2.549 | 2.615 |
| 07/14 14:07 | 空 | 62 | 67 | 138 | 154 | 2.594 | 2.569 |
| 07/14 21:37 | 多 | 66 | 66 | 143 | 135 | 2.609 | 2.633 |
| 07/15 05:51 | 多 | 79 | 50 | 141 | 133 | 2.579 | 2.629 |
| 07/15 13:21 | 空 | 56 | 37 | 138 | 126 | 2.66 | 2.692 |
| 07/15 21:36 | 空 | 49 | 46 | 123 | 145 | 2.625 | 2.722 |
| 07/16 05:21 | 空 | 51 | 49 | 139 | 140 | 2.641 | 2.73 |
| 07/16 12:37 | 多 | 50 | 56 | 125 | 152 | 2.582 | 2.607 |
| 07/17 03:51 | 多 | 49 | 49 | 112 | 133 | 2.481 | 2.535 |
- 数据跨度115小时(406个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 82→49(-33)
- 空头巨鲸 54→49(-5)
- 多头交易员 238→112(-126)
- 空头交易员 261→133(-128)
- 多头成本 2.695→2.481(-7.9%)
- 空头成本 2.814→2.535(-9.9%)
- 多头浮盈亏 +3.5%
- 空头浮盈亏 -1.3%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/14 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 04:00 | 0.0058% | |
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0053% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0069% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0085% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0061% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 00:00 | 0.0059% | |
| 07/16 04:00 | 0.0091% | |
| 07/16 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段余震
信号起始07-12 21:07 @ 2.832 · 至今-9.4%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决WATCH · 观望
周期第2轮 · 76.17×
垂直爆发已疯 (168%)
OI$14.2M (峰值77%)
距本轮峰值77.8% · 35天
二轮风险低 · 9%
价格可操纵度100%
深盘锚定0%
类比≈BR 见顶前326天
30天腰斩概率12%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第2轮曾拉升76倍(垂直爆发168%),见顶后35天已崩78%,现价仍是最初起点的16.9倍
- 距本轮峰值78%,见顶后35天,进入余震绞肉区
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.06M,占52%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈9%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 余震绞肉区,无明确方向/接近死透,观望
六、综合研判
信号统计: 0个看涨 vs 1个看跌
看跌 / 警惕信号
- 价涨OI跌:上涨靠空头平仓驱动,非新多入场,动力减弱
场景推演
余震归零
持续阴跌+OI不重建 → 持底仓空
二轮拉升
OI爆炸式重建+垂直反弹 → 立即平空