DEXE 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-17 11:55 CST · 捉妖器
34.07
-4.6% 24h
量 $101.8M
主跌·收网
继续做空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/04 | 22.93 | 25.38 | 22.47 | 23.24 | +1.4% | 13.0% | 974K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/05 | 23.25 | 25.15 | 23.07 | 24.09 | +3.6% | 9.0% | 604K | 缩量 长上影 |
| 07/06 | 24.08 | 29.05 | 24.04 | 27.92 | +15.9% | 20.8% | 2,238K | 中阳 |
| 07/07 | 27.92 | 29.4 | 27.42 | 28.16 | +0.9% | 7.2% | 1,398K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/08 | 28.16 | 29.93 | 27.83 | 29.16 | +3.6% | 7.5% | 1,415K | |
| 07/09 | 29.15 | 33 | 25.35 | 28.09 | -3.6% | 30.2% | 2,522K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/10 | 28.11 | 36.95 | 28.09 | 35.03 | +24.6% | 31.5% | 4,578K | 大阳 |
| 07/11 | 35.01 | 39.45 | 34.87 | 38.23 | +9.2% | 13.1% | 2,530K | |
| 07/12 | 38.24 | 49.99 | 37.24 | 47.94 | +25.4% | 34.2% | 5,961K | 大阳 ★新高 |
| 07/13 | 47.94 | 49.67 | 38.85 | 42.63 | -11.1% | 27.9% | 4,596K | 中阴 |
| 07/14 | 42.64 | 44.3 | 38.25 | 41.46 | -2.8% | 15.8% | 2,494K | 长下影 |
| 07/15 | 41.46 | 41.53 | 32.68 | 37.14 | -10.4% | 27.1% | 2,956K | 中阴 长下影 |
| 07/16 | 37.14 | 37.96 | 31.31 | 35.51 | -4.4% | 21.2% | 2,914K | 长下影 |
| 07/17 | 35.51 | 36.01 | 33.89 | 34.07 | -4.1% | 6.3% | 338K | 缩量 |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/18 | $29.3M | |
| 06/19 | $31.3M | +6.6% |
| 06/20 | $34.3M | +9.6% |
| 06/21 | $30.9M | -9.9% |
| 06/22 | $28.3M | -8.3% |
| 06/23 | $41.1M | +45.3% |
| 06/24 | $63.7M | +55.1% |
| 06/25 | $58.7M | -7.9% |
| 06/26 | $57.9M | -1.4% |
| 06/27 | $52.5M | -9.3% |
| 06/28 | $53.7M | +2.4% |
| 06/29 | $52.5M | -2.3% |
| 06/30 | $56.5M | +7.7% |
| 07/01 | $56.9M | +0.6% |
| 07/02 | $55.9M | -1.7% |
| 07/03 | $56.4M | +0.9% |
| 07/04 | $55.7M | -1.2% |
| 07/05 | $56.1M | +0.6% |
| 07/06 | $58.8M | +4.9% |
| 07/07 | $69.8M | +18.6% |
| 07/08 | $70.5M | +1.0% |
| 07/09 | $72.3M | +2.6% |
| 07/10 | $68.5M | -5.3% |
| 07/11 | $87.4M | +27.5% |
| 07/12 | $93.5M | +7.0% |
| 07/13 | $120.4M | +28.7% |
| 07/14 | $103.3M | -14.2% |
| 07/15 | $98.7M | -4.5% |
| 07/16 | $84.3M | -14.6% |
| 07/17 | $74.4M | -11.8% |
- 当前OI $74.4M,占近30日峰值的62%
- 近7天OI变化-15%
- 最近1日OI变化-12%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速下跌-7%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 空 | 125 | 82 | 262 | 314 | 38.28 | 37.96 |
| 07/12 15:22 | 空 | 116 | 102 | 302 | 407 | 42.7 | 42.43 |
| 07/12 22:22 | 空 | 112 | 111 | 310 | 458 | 44.41 | 45.1 |
| 07/13 06:06 | 多 | 93 | 123 | 287 | 488 | 44.94 | 46.2 |
| 07/13 14:22 | 空 | 103 | 115 | 309 | 419 | 46.44 | 46.43 |
| 07/13 22:07 | 空 | 118 | 102 | 387 | 363 | 44.4 | 45.32 |
| 07/14 05:52 | 空 | 109 | 116 | 376 | 357 | 42.56 | 43.77 |
| 07/14 14:07 | 空 | 121 | 110 | 390 | 336 | 40.99 | 41.87 |
| 07/14 21:37 | 空 | 120 | 92 | 291 | 282 | 41.23 | 41.55 |
| 07/15 05:51 | 空 | 125 | 87 | 296 | 249 | 40.86 | 41.07 |
| 07/15 13:21 | 空 | 91 | 103 | 274 | 265 | 39.79 | 39.21 |
| 07/15 21:36 | 空 | 109 | 86 | 308 | 259 | 37.29 | 37.77 |
| 07/16 05:21 | 空 | 98 | 105 | 270 | 306 | 36.41 | 36.44 |
| 07/16 12:37 | 空 | 118 | 100 | 293 | 289 | 35.86 | 35.57 |
| 07/17 03:51 | 空 | 98 | 115 | 265 | 299 | 34.58 | 34.19 |
- 数据跨度115小时(406个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 125→98(-27)
- 空头巨鲸 82→115(+33)
- 巨鲸从多头转向空头——聪明钱在赌反转
- 多头交易员 262→265(+3)
- 空头交易员 314→299(-15)
- 多头成本 38.28→34.58(-9.7%)
- 空头成本 37.96→34.19(-9.9%)
- 多头浮盈亏 -1.5%
- 空头浮盈亏 +0.4%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/14 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 00:00 | -0.0001% | |
| 07/17 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段主跌·收网
信号起始07-16 02:06 @ 34.99 · 至今-2.7%
置信度high
空单目标仓位70%
机会裁决SHORT · 继续做空
周期第1轮 · 26.09×
垂直爆发已疯 (71%)
OI$74.4M (峰值62%)
距本轮峰值31.9% · 5天
价格可操纵度23%
深盘锚定77%
类比≈SOON 见顶前22天
30天腰斩概率12%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第1轮曾拉升26倍(垂直爆发71%),见顶后5天已崩32%,现价仍是最初起点的17.8倍
- 距本轮峰值32%,破位下行
- OI 24h崩塌-11%
- 费率已回中性/转正0.005%
- 近4h多头爆仓主导($0.45M,占75%)
操作建议: 崩后主跌:持仓量在崩、确认是真下跌(不是洗盘),可以正当做空;加仓到 60-80%:收网确认,已有安全垫,回弹处加
六、综合研判
信号统计: 2个看涨 vs 2个看跌
看跌 / 警惕信号
- 巨鲸从多头转向空头——聪明钱在赌反转
- 阶段裁决:继续做空
场景推演
继续下跌
OI持续崩+费率中性/正 → 持空
死猫跳反弹
技术性超跌反弹(1-3天)+OI未重建 → 反弹衰竭加空
二轮启动
OI重建+费率再转负+抬高低点 → 平空离场