EVAA 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-17 11:53 CST · 捉妖器
1.044
-4.7% 24h
量 $75.3M
余震
观望
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/04 | 0.8735 | 1.019 | 0.8661 | 0.9619 | +10.1% | 17.6% | 12,097K | 缩量 中阳 |
| 07/05 | 0.9624 | 0.989 | 0.8301 | 0.8384 | -12.9% | 19.1% | 5,920K | 缩量 中阴 |
| 07/06 | 0.8389 | 0.9989 | 0.8256 | 0.9989 | +19.1% | 21.0% | 6,860K | 缩量 中阳 |
| 07/07 | 0.9989 | 2.978 | 0.9658 | 2.639 | +164.2% | 208.4% | 289,585K | 大阳 |
| 07/08 | 2.639 | 3.849 | 2.267 | 2.773 | +5.1% | 69.8% | 323,888K | 十字星 长上影 ★新高 |
| 07/09 | 2.773 | 2.968 | 1.598 | 2.232 | -19.5% | 85.8% | 211,322K | 中阴 |
| 07/10 | 2.232 | 2.91 | 1.925 | 2.452 | +9.9% | 51.1% | 167,511K | |
| 07/11 | 2.452 | 2.638 | 1.566 | 1.88 | -23.3% | 68.4% | 158,544K | 大阴 |
| 07/12 | 1.88 | 1.935 | 0.3012 | 1.14 | -39.4% | 542.4% | 860,423K | 放量 大阴 长下影 |
| 07/13 | 1.14 | 1.234 | 0.6531 | 0.8438 | -26.0% | 89.0% | 465,383K | 大阴 |
| 07/14 | 0.8438 | 1.279 | 0.748 | 1.06 | +25.6% | 71.0% | 373,199K | 大阳 |
| 07/15 | 1.06 | 1.251 | 0.9201 | 1.059 | -0.1% | 36.0% | 206,126K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/16 | 1.059 | 1.115 | 0.9412 | 1.072 | +1.3% | 18.5% | 77,758K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 07/17 | 1.072 | 1.089 | 1.024 | 1.044 | -2.6% | 6.4% | 5,361K | 缩量 |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/18 | $6.7M | |
| 06/19 | $5.8M | -13.7% |
| 06/20 | $7.7M | +33.8% |
| 06/21 | $8.0M | +3.2% |
| 06/22 | $7.5M | -5.6% |
| 06/23 | $7.3M | -3.8% |
| 06/24 | $7.3M | +0.5% |
| 06/25 | $7.3M | +0.1% |
| 06/26 | $7.8M | +6.2% |
| 06/27 | $7.5M | -3.1% |
| 06/28 | $6.6M | -12.3% |
| 06/29 | $5.4M | -17.3% |
| 06/30 | $6.4M | +17.8% |
| 07/01 | $6.5M | +0.6% |
| 07/02 | $6.8M | +5.8% |
| 07/03 | $7.8M | +14.2% |
| 07/04 | $6.2M | -19.9% |
| 07/05 | $6.6M | +5.1% |
| 07/06 | $5.7M | -13.4% |
| 07/07 | $6.7M | +17.6% |
| 07/08 | $29.1M | +336.2% |
| 07/09 | $30.2M | +3.7% |
| 07/10 | $22.4M | -25.8% |
| 07/11 | $24.1M | +7.4% |
| 07/12 | $19.5M | -19.2% |
| 07/13 | $14.3M | -26.5% |
| 07/14 | $11.6M | -19.2% |
| 07/15 | $15.6M | +35.1% |
| 07/16 | $13.5M | -13.6% |
| 07/17 | $12.9M | -4.1% |
- 当前OI $12.9M,占近30日峰值的43%
- 近7天OI变化-46%
- OI快速萎缩——仓位在撤离/爆仓
- 最近1日OI变化-4%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速下跌-7%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 空 | 65 | 105 | 367 | 551 | 1.925 | 1.299 |
| 07/12 15:22 | 空 | 87 | 84 | 402 | 536 | 1.638 | 1.142 |
| 07/12 22:22 | 多 | 94 | 77 | 408 | 535 | 1.755 | 1.447 |
| 07/13 06:06 | 空 | 77 | 75 | 338 | 446 | 1.236 | 1.364 |
| 07/13 14:22 | 空 | 83 | 82 | 405 | 428 | 0.994403 | 1.085 |
| 07/13 22:07 | 空 | 78 | 84 | 377 | 404 | 0.89359 | 1.021 |
| 07/14 05:52 | 多 | 85 | 76 | 342 | 366 | 0.84664 | 1.131 |
| 07/14 14:07 | 多 | 73 | 78 | 345 | 435 | 0.873229 | 0.949388 |
| 07/14 21:37 | 多 | 81 | 72 | 365 | 499 | 0.917444 | 1.03 |
| 07/15 05:51 | 多 | 80 | 76 | 374 | 508 | 1.005 | 1.094 |
| 07/15 13:21 | 空 | 69 | 69 | 340 | 488 | 1.122 | 1.191 |
| 07/15 21:36 | 多 | 68 | 69 | 334 | 354 | 1.091 | 1.149 |
| 07/16 05:21 | 多 | 60 | 72 | 271 | 323 | 1.09 | 1.185 |
| 07/16 12:37 | 空 | 63 | 67 | 241 | 294 | 1.077 | 1.104 |
| 07/17 03:51 | 多 | 54 | 64 | 218 | 237 | 1.034 | 1.03 |
- 数据跨度115小时(406个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 65→54(-11)
- 空头巨鲸 105→64(-41)
- 多头交易员 367→218(-149)
- 空头交易员 551→237(-314)
- 多头成本 1.925→1.034(-46.3%)
- 空头成本 1.299→1.03(-20.7%)
- 多头浮盈亏 +1.0%
- 空头浮盈亏 -1.4%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/14 00:00 | -0.0038% | |
| 07/14 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0090% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0308% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0656% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0523% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0492% | |
| 07/15 08:00 | 0.0368% | |
| 07/15 12:00 | 0.0274% | |
| 07/15 16:00 | 0.0144% | |
| 07/15 20:00 | 0.0504% | |
| 07/16 00:00 | 0.0162% | |
| 07/16 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 00:00 | 0.0229% | |
| 07/17 04:00 | 0.0415% | |
| 07/17 08:00 | 0.0450% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段余震
信号起始07-12 08:21 @ 1.6707 · 至今-37.6%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决WATCH · 观望
周期第2轮 · 12.73×
垂直爆发已疯 (231%)
OI$12.9M (峰值43%)
距本轮峰值72.9% · 9天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度100%
深盘锚定0%
类比≈PTB 见顶后57天
30天腰斩概率0%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第2轮曾拉升13倍(垂直爆发231%),见顶后9天已崩73%,现价仍是最初起点的3.5倍
- 距本轮峰值73%,见顶后9天,进入余震绞肉区
- 近4h多头爆仓主导($0.21M,占59%)
- 近7日从低点反弹+24%,当心它再拉一轮(那时该平掉空单)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 余震绞肉区,无明确方向/接近死透,观望
六、综合研判
信号统计: 0个看涨 vs 1个看跌
场景推演
余震归零
持续阴跌+OI不重建 → 持底仓空
二轮拉升
OI爆炸式重建+垂直反弹 → 立即平空