SYN 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-17 11:55 CST · 捉妖器
0.2232
-9.9% 24h
量 $21.2M
余震
观察·余震阴跌·持空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/04 | 0.44573 | 0.51558 | 0.33239 | 0.359 | -19.5% | 55.1% | 244,558K | 中阴 ★新高 |
| 07/05 | 0.35908 | 0.445 | 0.30621 | 0.39545 | +10.1% | 45.3% | 331,833K | 中阳 |
| 07/06 | 0.39549 | 0.48 | 0.36201 | 0.37517 | -5.1% | 32.6% | 343,328K | 长上影 |
| 07/07 | 0.37516 | 0.38793 | 0.3324 | 0.3695 | -1.5% | 16.7% | 131,442K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 07/08 | 0.3692 | 0.4356 | 0.34467 | 0.3522 | -4.6% | 26.4% | 189,809K | 长上影 |
| 07/09 | 0.3524 | 0.386 | 0.3378 | 0.376 | +6.7% | 14.3% | 88,213K | |
| 07/10 | 0.376 | 0.3869 | 0.2777 | 0.3048 | -18.9% | 39.3% | 145,792K | 中阴 |
| 07/11 | 0.3048 | 0.315 | 0.2867 | 0.2935 | -3.7% | 9.9% | 90,481K | |
| 07/12 | 0.2934 | 0.3322 | 0.2914 | 0.3194 | +8.9% | 14.0% | 88,944K | |
| 07/13 | 0.3196 | 0.3245 | 0.2351 | 0.2435 | -23.8% | 38.0% | 140,676K | 大阴 |
| 07/14 | 0.2436 | 0.3182 | 0.2152 | 0.2728 | +12.0% | 47.9% | 271,050K | 中阳 |
| 07/15 | 0.2729 | 0.2836 | 0.2452 | 0.2472 | -9.4% | 15.7% | 125,671K | |
| 07/16 | 0.2471 | 0.251 | 0.2203 | 0.2208 | -10.6% | 13.9% | 93,714K | 中阴 |
| 07/17 | 0.2209 | 0.2292 | 0.2194 | 0.2232 | +1.0% | 4.5% | 10,881K | 缩量 |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/18 | $4.6M | |
| 06/19 | $12.2M | +166.4% |
| 06/20 | $11.3M | -7.8% |
| 06/21 | $8.9M | -20.9% |
| 06/22 | $12.1M | +35.3% |
| 06/23 | $25.6M | +112.5% |
| 06/24 | $22.0M | -14.2% |
| 06/25 | $28.9M | +31.5% |
| 06/26 | $20.1M | -30.4% |
| 06/27 | $18.7M | -6.9% |
| 06/28 | $15.3M | -18.4% |
| 06/29 | $19.0M | +24.1% |
| 06/30 | $29.2M | +53.8% |
| 07/01 | $29.8M | +2.3% |
| 07/02 | $28.0M | -6.2% |
| 07/03 | $27.1M | -3.1% |
| 07/04 | $23.7M | -12.5% |
| 07/05 | $19.3M | -18.8% |
| 07/06 | $20.5M | +6.1% |
| 07/07 | $19.7M | -3.5% |
| 07/08 | $20.1M | +1.8% |
| 07/09 | $18.5M | -7.8% |
| 07/10 | $20.3M | +9.6% |
| 07/11 | $16.6M | -18.3% |
| 07/12 | $16.2M | -2.4% |
| 07/13 | $16.8M | +3.8% |
| 07/14 | $12.8M | -24.1% |
| 07/15 | $14.4M | +12.6% |
| 07/16 | $13.4M | -6.9% |
| 07/17 | $12.7M | -5.0% |
- 当前OI $12.7M,占近30日峰值的43%
- 近7天OI变化-23%
- 最近1日OI变化-5%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速下跌-6%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 空 | 50 | 87 | 164 | 205 | 0.308955 | 0.306827 |
| 07/12 15:22 | 多 | 73 | 62 | 183 | 184 | 0.311518 | 0.309239 |
| 07/12 22:22 | 多 | 81 | 57 | 207 | 161 | 0.316751 | 0.313534 |
| 07/13 06:06 | 多 | 88 | 46 | 191 | 146 | 0.317006 | 0.321093 |
| 07/13 14:22 | 多 | 89 | 61 | 197 | 180 | 0.304807 | 0.314797 |
| 07/13 22:07 | 多 | 97 | 55 | 213 | 197 | 0.276036 | 0.270997 |
| 07/14 05:52 | 多 | 95 | 58 | 208 | 226 | 0.261194 | 0.272313 |
| 07/14 14:07 | 多 | 81 | 75 | 226 | 250 | 0.259538 | 0.264926 |
| 07/14 21:37 | 多 | 83 | 82 | 234 | 265 | 0.26113 | 0.270769 |
| 07/15 05:51 | 空 | 89 | 77 | 248 | 245 | 0.26897 | 0.268062 |
| 07/15 13:21 | 多 | 74 | 58 | 201 | 226 | 0.282509 | 0.277976 |
| 07/15 21:36 | 空 | 73 | 54 | 198 | 177 | 0.264394 | 0.266004 |
| 07/16 05:21 | 多 | 68 | 57 | 173 | 179 | 0.25583 | 0.260142 |
| 07/16 12:37 | 多 | 54 | 79 | 157 | 223 | 0.248014 | 0.250858 |
| 07/17 03:51 | 多 | 43 | 85 | 120 | 237 | 0.227859 | 0.232696 |
- 数据跨度115小时(406个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 50→43(-7)
- 空头巨鲸 87→85(-2)
- 多头交易员 164→120(-44)
- 空头交易员 205→237(+32)
- 多头成本 0.309→0.2279(-26.2%)
- 空头成本 0.3068→0.2327(-24.2%)
- 多头浮盈亏 -2.0%
- 空头浮盈亏 +4.1%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/14 00:00 | -0.0041% | |
| 07/14 04:00 | -0.0035% | |
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0034% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0039% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0018% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0020% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 12:00 | 0.0046% | |
| 07/15 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 20:00 | 0.0038% | |
| 07/16 00:00 | 0.0044% | |
| 07/16 04:00 | 0.0033% | |
| 07/16 08:00 | -0.0005% | |
| 07/16 12:00 | 0.0002% | |
| 07/16 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 20:00 | 0.0010% | |
| 07/17 00:00 | -0.0006% | |
| 07/17 04:00 | 0.0014% | |
| 07/17 08:00 | -0.0015% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段余震
信号起始07-12 20:07 @ 0.3251 · 至今-31.3%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决WATCH · 观察·余震阴跌·持空
周期第3轮 · 25.64×
垂直爆发已疯 (106%)
OI$12.7M (峰值43%)
距本轮峰值69.2% · 17天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度23%
深盘锚定77%
类比≈GUN 见顶后6天
30天腰斩概率25%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第3轮曾拉升26倍(垂直爆发106%),见顶后17天已崩69%,现价仍是最初起点的7.9倍
- 距本轮峰值69%,见顶后17天,进入余震绞肉区
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.10M,占54%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
- 顶级交易员:巨鲸扎堆做空(88vs40只),空头成本0.2311(浮盈3%)
操作建议: 只观察、先不建仓:已暴涨崩过。盯它会不会再拉一轮(那是平空信号)还是彻底归零,别在这里追空(崩后反弹很容易把空单绞掉)
六、综合研判
信号统计: 0个看涨 vs 0个看跌
场景推演
余震归零
持续阴跌+OI不重建 → 持底仓空
二轮拉升
OI爆炸式重建+垂直反弹 → 立即平空