ZEREBRO 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-17 11:53 CST · 捉妖器
0.033667
-4.9% 24h
量 $1.8M
主跌·收网
观察·继续做空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/04 | 0.039492 | 0.040061 | 0.034608 | 0.035491 | -10.1% | 15.8% | 93,039K | 中阴 |
| 07/05 | 0.035473 | 0.039986 | 0.034902 | 0.037628 | +6.1% | 14.6% | 100,941K | |
| 07/06 | 0.037622 | 0.042468 | 0.036571 | 0.039365 | +4.6% | 16.1% | 202,351K | 长上影 ★新高 |
| 07/07 | 0.039342 | 0.0424 | 0.037966 | 0.038152 | -3.0% | 11.7% | 115,587K | 长上影 |
| 07/08 | 0.038154 | 0.038637 | 0.035185 | 0.0362 | -5.1% | 9.8% | 55,533K | |
| 07/09 | 0.036223 | 0.038576 | 0.035688 | 0.037243 | +2.8% | 8.1% | 45,459K | |
| 07/10 | 0.037199 | 0.038235 | 0.035033 | 0.035667 | -4.1% | 9.1% | 39,664K | |
| 07/11 | 0.035672 | 0.0371 | 0.03458 | 0.035314 | -1.0% | 7.3% | 37,204K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/12 | 0.035321 | 0.036223 | 0.033836 | 0.03416 | -3.3% | 7.1% | 43,651K | |
| 07/13 | 0.03416 | 0.036604 | 0.034017 | 0.034274 | +0.3% | 7.6% | 54,721K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/14 | 0.03428 | 0.036491 | 0.033446 | 0.036113 | +5.3% | 9.1% | 47,468K | |
| 07/15 | 0.036103 | 0.036196 | 0.03486 | 0.035406 | -1.9% | 3.8% | 41,615K | |
| 07/16 | 0.035427 | 0.035874 | 0.033125 | 0.033343 | -5.9% | 8.3% | 47,874K | |
| 07/17 | 0.033343 | 0.033877 | 0.033097 | 0.033667 | +1.0% | 2.4% | 10,090K | 缩量 |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/18 | $3.6M | |
| 06/19 | $8.1M | +126.6% |
| 06/20 | $8.7M | +7.4% |
| 06/21 | $7.8M | -10.7% |
| 06/22 | $6.6M | -14.4% |
| 06/23 | $6.0M | -10.2% |
| 06/24 | $5.8M | -2.7% |
| 06/25 | $5.5M | -5.9% |
| 06/26 | $5.3M | -3.2% |
| 06/27 | $4.6M | -12.6% |
| 06/28 | $5.0M | +9.2% |
| 06/29 | $6.6M | +31.2% |
| 06/30 | $5.8M | -11.9% |
| 07/01 | $6.1M | +4.6% |
| 07/02 | $5.8M | -5.8% |
| 07/03 | $6.1M | +6.6% |
| 07/04 | $5.7M | -6.6% |
| 07/05 | $4.9M | -14.6% |
| 07/06 | $5.3M | +8.3% |
| 07/07 | $5.6M | +6.4% |
| 07/08 | $5.4M | -4.2% |
| 07/09 | $5.0M | -6.6% |
| 07/10 | $5.1M | +2.1% |
| 07/11 | $4.8M | -6.5% |
| 07/12 | $4.8M | -1.0% |
| 07/13 | $4.6M | -3.8% |
| 07/14 | $4.5M | -1.0% |
| 07/15 | $4.7M | +4.6% |
| 07/16 | $4.7M | -1.4% |
| 07/17 | $4.4M | -5.2% |
- 当前OI $4.4M,占近30日峰值的51%
- 近7天OI变化-8%
- 最近1日OI变化-5%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速下跌-5%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 多 | 47 | 32 | 82 | 70 | 0.0355428 | 0.0359947 |
| 07/12 15:22 | 多 | 40 | 39 | 77 | 79 | 0.0353938 | 0.0357992 |
| 07/12 22:22 | 多 | 40 | 42 | 88 | 80 | 0.0349151 | 0.0356524 |
| 07/13 06:06 | 空 | 40 | 39 | 92 | 72 | 0.0348728 | 0.0350856 |
| 07/13 14:22 | 空 | 44 | 35 | 102 | 72 | 0.0347204 | 0.0353009 |
| 07/13 22:07 | 空 | 36 | 45 | 94 | 79 | 0.0351977 | 0.0351252 |
| 07/14 05:52 | 空 | 40 | 42 | 92 | 83 | 0.0351121 | 0.0356433 |
| 07/14 14:07 | 多 | 32 | 51 | 73 | 109 | 0.0347601 | 0.0352079 |
| 07/14 21:37 | 多 | 35 | 47 | 72 | 101 | 0.034458 | 0.0347626 |
| 07/15 05:51 | 空 | 38 | 44 | 83 | 94 | 0.0354011 | 0.0355033 |
| 07/15 13:21 | 多 | 37 | 31 | 90 | 71 | 0.0357289 | 0.0357715 |
| 07/15 21:36 | 多 | 35 | 32 | 83 | 72 | 0.0353837 | 0.035783 |
| 07/16 05:21 | 多 | 39 | 30 | 84 | 69 | 0.035303 | 0.0358425 |
| 07/16 12:37 | 多 | 38 | 31 | 80 | 70 | 0.0351524 | 0.0360836 |
| 07/17 03:51 | 多 | 37 | 35 | 82 | 74 | 0.0340824 | 0.0340912 |
- 数据跨度115小时(406个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 47→37(-10)
- 空头巨鲸 32→35(+3)
- 多头交易员 82→82(+0)
- 空头交易员 70→74(+4)
- 多头成本 0.03554→0.03408(-4.1%)
- 空头成本 0.03599→0.03409(-5.3%)
- 多头浮盈亏 -1.2%
- 空头浮盈亏 +1.2%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/14 00:00 | 0.0065% | |
| 07/14 04:00 | 0.0051% | |
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0215% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0098% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 08:00 | 0.0145% | |
| 07/15 12:00 | 0.0108% | |
| 07/15 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 20:00 | 0.0116% | |
| 07/16 00:00 | 0.0075% | |
| 07/16 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 12:00 | 0.0064% | |
| 07/16 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/16 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 00:00 | 0.0237% | |
| 07/17 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/17 08:00 | 0.0189% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段主跌·收网
信号起始07-12 19:11 @ 0.035619 · 至今-5.5%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决WATCH · 观察·继续做空
周期第3轮 · 9.28×
垂直爆发已疯 (97%)
OI$4.4M (峰值51%)
距本轮峰值39.5% · 27天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度79%
深盘锚定21%
类比≈RIVER 见顶后80天
30天腰斩概率0%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第3轮曾拉升9倍(垂直爆发97%),见顶后27天已崩40%,现价仍是最初起点的5.6倍
- 距本轮峰值40%,破位下行
- 费率已回中性/转正0.019%
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.01M,占65%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 只观察、先不建仓:已暴涨崩过。盯它会不会再拉一轮(那是平空信号)还是彻底归零,别在这里追空(崩后反弹很容易把空单绞掉)
六、综合研判
信号统计: 0个看涨 vs 1个看跌
场景推演
继续下跌
OI持续崩+费率中性/正 → 持空
死猫跳反弹
技术性超跌反弹(1-3天)+OI未重建 → 反弹衰竭加空
二轮启动
OI重建+费率再转负+抬高低点 → 平空离场